So I think option 1 will come true. Feds have overshot and asset prices will become unhinged from fundies. We will see the biggest bubble since there were tulips in Holland…possibly through 2022, coinciding with the market orgy that the discovery of a vaccine will spur. I’m not sure how you can be short the market with your own analysis.Bundled Up Bernie Sanders Meme – Funny Mittens Chair Rainbow T-Shirt To think that SPY will crash to 150 in a year? Where’s all that fed money ( trillions of dollars) gonna go except into asset bubble building. Short position in the mid-term is based on the uncertainty of how this virus plays out. Everybody is saying recently we will be out of quarantine by may, but looking at the models of the virus,
Bundled Up Bernie Sanders Meme – Funny Mittens Chair Rainbow T-Shirt, ladies tee, tank top, v neck
if we don’t see absolutely massive drops in infection rate in the next week there is a high probability of another round of COVID19 related system shock. If we get around two and have to shut down again, the psychology of that is downright retarded. I think the packages were in good faith, but misguided. The SBA loans are impossible to apply for from what I’ve seen from my management, as in just so complex if you have more then 5 employees –Bundled Up Bernie Sanders Meme – Funny Mittens Chair Rainbow T-Shirt I think its a matter of the uptake of the SBA/emergency loans will tell us how small business leaves this, but a lot of small business owners don’t like debt, and I would assume some would rather go out of business then take a loan out.
Bundled Up Bernie Sanders Meme – Funny Mittens Chair Rainbow Sweatshirt, hoodie
In regards to the more short to med-term: What are your thoughts on all the stimulus bills that have been passed? If every unemployed american is getting UI + $600 + 1 time $1200, would this not leave most of them in a much better financial position? Businesses are also applying for grants as well. Congress is already contemplating a 4th bill now. Bundled Up Bernie Sanders Meme – Funny Mittens Chair Rainbow T-Shirt All the remaining workers are either able to work from home or their job is deemed “essential” and these workers collectively make up >90% of the working population’s income. The UI benefits were put in place until the end of July, implying that Congress knew we would not open up in any meaningful way. I’m not sure if this subtlety is lost on the average citizen though.